Courts can cage a leader, not a constituency
Brazil’s Supreme Court has handed Jair Bolsonaro a 27-year sentence for an alleged coup plot. He is under house arrest and in poor health. Yet from Independence Day crowds to national polling, the right-wing former president remains the gravitational center of Brazilian conservatism. An AtlasIntel survey in late August put Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in a statistical tie in a hypothetical rematch, while a Datafolha poll shows the country split on whether Bolsonaro should be jailed. The takeaway is blunt. A court can convict a politician, but it cannot convict his voters.
Judicial muscle risks political blowback
Brazil’s high court, and Justice Alexandre de Moraes in particular, has become the focal point for a conservative electorate that already distrusts overreach. Aggressive rulings can boomerang, deepening polarization and turning a defendant into a martyr. Allies are rallying behind an amnesty push that would spare Bolsonaro prison and even restore eligibility. Limited government depends on clear due process, predictable rules and political disputes resolved at the ballot box. If courts become the main arena, they risk writing the next chapter of the movement they seek to contain.
The succession fight on the right
The right is building a bench. Sao Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas, a disciplined administrator with national stature, stands out. Parana’s Ratinho Junior and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro are also in the mix, alongside influential figures like Michelle Bolsonaro and Nikolas Ferreira. Private messages suggesting friction between the Bolsonaro clan and Tarcisio may matter less than one fact. Any serious challenger to Lula in 2026 will need Bolsonaro’s blessing and his base. Tarcisio has already signaled he would back amnesty for Bolsonaro. That is not a policy footnote. It is a loyalty marker.
Security and stability require restraint
January 8 was a disgrace and must not be repeated. But criminalizing broad swaths of dissent risks driving radicals underground and widening the conflict. Brazil needs strong national security and civil order grounded in lawful policing, intelligence-led protection of key institutions and speedy, transparent trials. Congress debating amnesty is not capitulation. It can be a democratic pressure valve that returns disputed questions to voters and reduces the incentive for street confrontation. Courts should police crimes. They should not become the political opposition.
What to watch next
Key indicators are coming fast: movement on an amnesty bill, Moraes’s next rulings, whether Bolsonaro can discipline his coalition from house arrest and how Tarcisio balances governing Sao Paulo with national ambitions. Watch evangelical organizing, the right’s digital networks and whether Lula’s modest polling gains hold in a soft economy. If inflation or growth falter, expect the right to tighten the race. Bolsonaro’s courtroom fate is significant. His political movement is the larger story.
